However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. Where a ballot is so marked as to plainly indicate the voter's choice and intent, it should be counted as marked unless some positive provision of law would be violated. County custom standard: what each individual county canvassing board considered a vote, in regard to both undervotes and overvotes. It also stayed the state certification to November 26. In addition, some counties had provided an extra 432 total ballots, while others produced 1333 fewer ballots than expected. Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. The total number of undervotes and overvotes in Florida amounted to 3% of all votes cast in the state. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. [21] Additionally, this Florida election produced many more "overvotes" than usual, especially in predominantly African-American precincts in Duval County (Jacksonville), where some 21,000 ballots had multiple markings, such as two or more choices for president. It clearly shows that there have been extreme variations when the dividend was cut and reestablished. The results were 49% for Gore and 40% for Bush, with 11% uncertain or not wishing to respond.[82]. Sensitivity Analysis vs. However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. Objective Early detection of a tumour remains an unmet medical need, and approaches with high sensitivity and specificity are urgently required. The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 1 inputs the median and standard deviation from the historical data of Scenario 1 (Figure 5). Escambia County also reported completing its recount that day but did not include all of its precincts. When the county segregated all ballots by machine for the NORC review, 512 previously rejected ballots were determined to be completely valid. Meanwhile, on December 6 the Republican-controlled Florida legislature convened a special session to appoint a slate of electors pledged to Bush, as the U.S. Constitution bestows upon state legislatures the duty to determine how its state's electors are appointed. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. There is currently large uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Volusia County started its recount on November 12. Scenarios Example 18:59. They have maintained a dividend since 1973 while varying the growth and also having dividend cuts through financially turbulent times. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be The dividend data in this analysis was pulled from the JPM dividend history on the firms website (Figure 3). To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. Says Fred Schneider, We are old. It is important to observe these historical trends and note that the business of JPM has altered and developed over this representation of time. [74] These ballots contained undervotes (votes with no choice made for president) and overvotes (votes made with more than one choice marked). Moving forward into analyzing this statistical data creates two potential scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations relevant to dividend focused investors. Sensitivity Analysis. Under the FAC, a ballot with any other name written in (including Bush and Gore, who were not qualified as write-in candidates) was not an overvote, but rather a valid vote for the candidate whose name was marked by the voter. A computational method to identify cell types within a complex tissue, based on analysis of gene expression profiles, is described in this paper. A good representation of the issues with this variance is the difference between the mean and median of the growth rates which are 13.82% and 4.82% respectively. Scenarios 15:16. Only a fourth of the variance consisted of optical ballots. Figure 5. Orange County total of 512 properly filled ballots not read by machine on November 8, 2000. Negative sign indicates number of votes that decision caused to be excluded from state certified total. Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. [37] After the election, recounts conducted by various United States news media organizations continued to focus on undervotes. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! [11] If the board discovered an error that in its judgment could affect the outcome of the election, they were then authorized to do a full recount of the ballots. The recount was in progress on December 9 when the United States Supreme Court, by a 5 to 4 vote (Justices Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg and Breyer dissenting), granted Bush's emergency plea for a stay of the Florida Supreme Court recount ruling, stopping the incomplete recount. Sauls also rejected Gore's contest of the election result on December 4, and Gore appealed that decision too. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! Fig. In a world of uncertainty, scenarios are intended to explore alternatives that may significantly alter the basis for business-as-usual assumptions. Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. Conservative writer Andrew Sullivan in a contemporaneous article:[61]. There were two write-in candidates for president who had been qualified by the state of Florida. JPM price return vs S&P 500 YTD (Seeking Alpha). The organization analyzed 61,190 undervotes and 113,820 overvotes. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. Scenario analysis makes assumptions about multiple variables and factors for possible future scenarios and looks at how each would affect the business. Not from where I'm sitting and what I'm looking at." Gore appealed that decision to the Florida Supreme Court. The "set aside" ballots were dimpled ballots that were challenged by the two parties. Meaning of Sensitivity Analysis. The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 2 show a much more normalized result (Figure 7). The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. The Bush campaign subsequently appealed to the Supreme Court of the United States, which took up the case Bush v. Palm Beach County Canvassing Board on December 1. Furthermore, the number of undervotes correlates with how well the punch-card machines are maintained, and not with factors such as race or socioeconomic status. Since its low in 2010, JPM shareholders have experienced exceptional dividend growth into the present times which has helped strengthen a reputation as a reputable dividend firm for investors and is well showcased in the Seeking Alpha Dividend Grade. The large negative sentiment and economic pressures this year have been affecting JPM and the larger financial markets. Sensitivity, to a first approximation, is this counterfactual relation: Ss belief that p is sensitive if and only if, if p were false, S would not believe that p. A sensitivity condition on knowledge was defended by Robert Nozick (1981). Example 2: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from the Scenario 1 results and expects a median growth rate of 3.16% (rounded down to 3%, blue row), then the current pricing of JPM would allow for almost a 7% return for perpetuity. 2000 United States presidential election in Florida, National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special, Best Supporting Actress Series, Miniseries or Television Film, 2016 United States presidential election recounts, United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2006#District 13. Democrats claimed that many of these were not felons and should have been eligible to vote under Florida law. But theres a key difference. JPM annualized dividend history (Author). This represents a much smaller right skew since the values are closer together. On November 28, Judge N. Sanders Sauls of Leon County Circuit Court rejected Gore's request to include the recount results from Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties. In this constitutional system, the "will of the people" is an irrelevant abstraction. JPM annual dividend growth rate - Scenario 2 (Author). The results of this tally were to be added to the November 26 tally. For those with memories going back four decades, all this was no accident. [37] Because there was no clear indication of what the voters intended, those numbers were not included in the consortium's final tabulations. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) has moved into "Buy" range with the possibility of moving into "Strong Buy" range if this bearish market continues pressuring equities down. [19]:215216 Also, before the election, the Secretary of State's office had expunged tens of thousands of citizens identified as felons from the Florida voting rolls, with African-Americans identified on some counties' lists at up to five times their share of the population. Nine other counties said that it was a possibility, while 49 counties said that they would not have counted reclaimable overvotes per the court's order. What this means for investors is that using the inputs from the historical data and 5,000 randomized iterations, JPM has an expected growth rate median of 3.16% and 52.28% of the time will be a positive integer. On November 11, it joined a group of Florida voters in suing in federal district court for a preemptive injunction to stop all manual recounting of votes in Florida. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Among these was the Palm Beach "butterfly ballot", which resulted in an unusually high number of votes for Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan. 11. 10. This means that the normalized data 95% of the time fell between those values. What is scenario analysis? Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. In comparison, counties that used paper ballots scanned by computers at voting places (in order to give voters a chance to correct their ballot if it had an error) had just 1 in 200 uncountable ballots. The Sensitivity Analysis shows that as the growth rate declines given a constant return expectation, the purchase price decreases for JPM. The summary above shows the results of a CAGR calculation since 1973, and the past 20, 10, and 5 years. Example 1: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from Scenario 2 expecting a median growth rate of 5.35% (rounded down to 5%, yellow row) while expecting a 9% return on dividend stocks, then that investor would have a purchase price of $105 which places JPM currently around an appropriate buying range. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. Sensitivity Analysis. With only two hours remaining until the December 12 deadline, the Supreme Court's order effectively ended the recount. For all the furor over Palm Beach, it was black precincts where voters had been turned away, denied a ballot because some had been mislabeled as felons, blocked from voting because of bureaucratic bungles, or because the huge increase in black turnout had overwhelmed local officials. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. The simulation also showed a 77.6% probability for a positive integer meaning that it is a likely probability that JPM increases their dividend when considering their normalized historical trends. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated Following the machine recount, the Gore campaign requested a manual recount in four counties. Figure 8 represents a summary of JPM dividend growth rates that investors can use to form their inputs into their investments. On December 9, 2000, four counties (Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee) completed recounts of undervotes ordered by the Florida Supreme Court, identifying a small number of new votes. Monte Carlo dividend simulation results - Scenario 2 (Author). In order to normalize the assumptions for modeling, we can re-run the model to find the dividend growth rate while removing everything outside of the 95% confidence interval which are the variables outside of -2.1% to 29.7% (Figure 6).

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